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Thanks to everyone who answered. I know that giving voting preferences in a public poll is a little hazardous, and I appreciate your candour.

I'm still not sure. I vote in California, where Harris leads something like 57% to 35% in the most recent polls. Unless something goes wildly amiss, a vote for a third party candidate who supports ending the war in Gaza and Lebanon would be a safe vote that would not throw the election to Trump.

However, I don't know if it sends any kind of message whatsoever. I feel dishonest casting a vote for a person who is not my preference.

I feel like the movement to pressure the Democratic candidate to be more explicit about ending the war has been the only structural pressure available in the last year.

The US has vetoed resolutions to come to a ceasefire in the UN Security Council. The US and Israel have considered the decisions of the UN General Assembly non-binding, and the requirements of the Internation Court of Justice as moot since Israel is supposedly already in compliance. Neither country is a member of the ICC.

Israelis aren't having an election and might re-elect the Netanyahu government, with or without its Kahanist partners, anyway.

So, the narrow margin in battleground states like Michigan, where Arab Americans are a non-neglible percentage of the population, has been one of the few points of direct pressure available.

This election cycle has been a game of chicken between the campaign and the Arab American community and the wider peace movement.

Neither one wants Trump to win; both have been betting that the other side will swerve.

It is probably too late for the Harris-Walz campaign to swerve. Early voting already started. A last-minute announcement of a different policy, unless it were truly radical, would probably not be enough to convince anyone.

So, the question becomes, should the Arab American and peace faction swerve?

On one side, there's the realpolitik of voting. If you say you're not going to vote for a candidate unless they change a policy, and they don't change it, you are weakening future negotiating positions if you vote for them anyway. Candidates will know that you don't stick with your threats.

On the other hand, a second Trump presidency would be disastrous for everyone, including the Arab American community and all people in the Middle East.

In terms of leadership in the Arab American community, the Uncommitted Movement has refused to endorse Harris. Rashida Tlaib has said that defeating Trump is important, but still has not endorsed Harris.

I think the rough strategy of the Harris campaign is to pick up whichever votes they can from Arab Americans, and then make up the rest of the gap in other ways.

Thanks for reading all the way through.

@evan It makes me feel sad that is it not possible for you to vote for the candidate that presents you best and make them part of the government. I think this two party democracies are broken in the long run. It makes me feel uneasy that such a big country may become so unstable. I really hope you will fix it. There are many exemples out there.